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CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC SIGNS INCREASE ABOUT MARKET RECOVERY TOWARD END OF YEAR

As the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic passes the half-year mark, there at last appear to a be growing number of signs that the markets, while still depressed, could make a modest recovery toward the end of the year.

According to The Economic Times, a prominent Indian daily, diamond and gold jewelry dealers are witnessing gradual improvement in exports and expect the trend to improve into the fourth quarter of the year.

“We can see the initial signs of recovery in the U.S. and Chinese markets,” Vipul Shah, the Vice Chairman of the country’s Gem & Jewelry Export Promotion Council, told the newspaper. “Even Europe is showing green shoots of recovery.”

But another worry, unrelated to the coronavirus crisis, is the souring relationship between India and China, following a series of military skirmishes on the border separating the two countries. Some 30 percent to 35 percent in India’s diamond exports are to China.

“Keeping that in mind, we are looking at other Far East nations for exporting our products,” Shah told the newspaper. These reportedly include Vietnam and Thailand.

Exports of gems and jewelry from India declined by 50.4 percent to $4.11 billion during the second quarter of 2020.

ALROSA LOOK TO ROUGH SALES RECOVERY BY OCTOBER

Executives at the Russian mining company Alrosa have also provided an upbeat forecast, saying that a return to pre-pandemic rough sales levels could come as soon as October, because of shortages of goods in the midstream and improving retail demand.

“There’s real demand for rough being processed in the factories in India, even [though they’re not] performing at maximum capacities,” said Sergey Ivanov, the company’s CEO, during a call with analysts following the release of the firm’s second quarter earnings report

“We hope that [the] midstream, based on the new contracts, will start to manufacture,” stated Evgeny Agureev, Alrosa’s deputy CEO. “They will have [the] next couple of months…to support all these contracts, [which] means September and October. So we hope that in October we’ll be able to switch to our normal level of sales.”

Like De Beers, Alrosa made a conscious decision at the start of the crisis t hold prices steady, rather than flooding the market with lower-cost goods. “Rational behavior and [a] price-over-volume approach allowed the industry to keep prices stable,” Agureev said. “Alrosa took a hit, allowing customers to postpone purchases and letting the industry destock, or avoid excessive stocking.”

Rough diamonds being prepared for sale at Alrosa. Company executives believe that sales could rise to pre-pandemic levels as soon as October.

Tiffany & Co.’s flagship store on Fifth Avenue in New York. The U.S. Census Bureau has reported that overall retail sales during July were up 1.2 percent seasonally adjusted from June and up 2.7 percent year-over-year.

AMERICAN RETAIL SALES UP IN JULY

Another, non-industry body predicting an upturn in market activity is the National Retail Federation in the United States. In a report release in mid-August said that American retail sales continued to recover from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic in July, growing more slowly than the month before, adding to the strong turnaround seen since this spring’s declines.

“Retail sales for July were another positive step in the right direction as our economy continues to slowly reopen,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Americans are showing their continued resilience and willingness to spend in the face of this unprecedented pandemic and government actions to date have clearly supported consumers and the economy in this process. Retailers all across the country have demonstrated that their stores and supply chains can be operated safely and effectively for associates and their customers by following established guidelines and protocols.”

“Retail sales are starting the third quarter on a solid footing considering the nosedive we saw this spring, but we have to remember that there’s uncertainty about economic policy and that the resurgence of the virus is putting pressure on the fledgling recovery,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “While households are spending, they are anxious about their health and economic well-being, so they are being pragmatic. The amount of uncertainty about forecasting is huge as we look toward the second half of the year, and what happens with the economy comes down to what the coronavirus allows us to do.”

The U.S. Census Bureau has reported that overall retail sales during July were up 1.2 percent seasonally adjusted from June and up 2.7 percent year-over-year. That follows an 8.4 percent month-over-month increase in June. Retail sales have been climbing after a record monthly drop while most stores were closed in April.

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