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ARABIAN GULF LUXURY MARKETS SET FOR STRONG RECOVERY FUELED IN PART BY GROWTH IN ONLINE SHOPPING

 

While the recovery of the Chinese market has garnered most analysts’ attention in recent months, a study by Bain & Co. has suggested that a revival of the luxury goods markets in the Arabian Gulf is also on the cards.

A report prepared by Cyrille Fabre and Anne-Laure Malauzat of Bain’s Middle East bureau notes that, despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the emergence of some positive shopping trends and the ongoing recovery offer hope for a return to relative normalcy in 2021 and into 2022. The study covered the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

It should be noted that, relative to Europe and east Asia, the vaccination drive in parts of the GCC region is relatively well advanced, led by the UAE where, as of mid-May, 53 percent of residents have received shots, and Bahrain, where the figure is about 48 percent.

The GCC luxury goods market fell by 17 percent in value to $7.4 billion in 2020, with the dynamics in the various countries differing according each one’s exposure to tourism and the repatriation of spending from abroad, the report stated.

Although the decline in tourism hurt the market, GCC nationals, who usually purchase 30 percent to 40 percent of their luxury goods outside the region, repatriated spending to their respective countries offsetting the reduction in spending by visitors from abroad.

As a consequence, countries with low exposure to tourism, like Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, did not see such a sharp drop in luxury turnover last year, the Bain study said. This was in comparison with UAE, where tourists account for as much as 60 percent of the spending on luxury products, where the impact on luxury income in 2020 was closer to the global average decline of 23 percent.

JEWELRY LEADS THE VARIOUS LUXURY PARTY CATEGORIES

The Bain research revealed clear differences between the various luxury product categories in 2020, with jewelry outperforming the others. It was the only luxury category to achieve positive value growth during the year, although it was only by a very modest 1 percent.

Jewelry’s growth came as a result of a second half rebound. It was spurred by local GCC customers, due to weddings, investment buying, and the launch of new collections.

In Saudi Arabia particularly, the region’s largest economy. Because spending abroad was almost completely repatriated, the top brands outperformed and grew their presence.

The fall in tourism weighed heavily on the watch sector, with imports from Switzerland declining 50 percent in volume and 20 percent in value.

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As far as beauty products were concerned, the reduction seen in the GCC markets were in line with the global decline, but the category saw an e-commerce boom as GCC residents headed online to shop.

With fashion, spending was affected by the trend toward more casual day-to-day apparel. Like beauty, fashion saw an e-commerce boom.

Some 70 percent of high-net-worth GCC buyers reported that they are now comfortable with online shopping. Brands reported that online sales grew twofold to sixfold.

SAUDI ARABIA ENGINE FOR GROWTH

The authors of the report expect that luxury product spending in the GCC countries will rise sharply over the course of this year.

“Moving forward, 2021 spending is expected to be slightly below 2019 levels, assuming a gradual return to travel in the second and third quarters,” reported Fabre and Malauzat. “Much will depend on each brand’s ability to keep a large share of the luxury spending that traditionally took place abroad while also convincing tourists to spend in the region.”

Saudi Arabia will likely remain the biggest engine of growth for the regional luxury industry in coming years, the Bain report predicts, with about 40 percent of the region’s population under the age of 25.

The report’s authors noted that the Saudi market is changing, because of population growth, new tastes and preferences, and the emergence of new luxury consumers, including affluent working women.

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Online shopping will continue to fuel growth, even after the threat of the COVID-19 pandemic subsides, the report’s authors state.

“We anticipate that, post-lockdown, e-commerce will continue to flourish as retailers and brands make large investments to improve the user experience, helping to fuel growth,” they write.

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