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WITH THANKSGIVING WEEKEND IN UNITED STATES APPROACHING, SURVEYS SUGGEST A BUMPER HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON

 

As the hours tick away to the start of the 2021 Thanksgiving Day weekend, retailers in the world’s largest diamond jewelry market are predicting a strong start to the holiday season, the most important shopping period of any calendar year.

According to the annual survey released on November 17 by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics, almost 2 million more people than last year are expected to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year, even as consumers have continued the trend of starting their holiday shopping earlier in the year.

“We’re expecting another record-breaking holiday season this year and Thanksgiving weekend will play a major role as it always has,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Nonetheless, consumers are starting earlier than ever to be sure they can get what they want, when they want it, at a price they want to pay.”

“Black Friday stopped being a one-day event years ago, and this year some consumers started shopping for Christmas as early as Halloween. NRF is encouraging consumers to shop safe and shop early, but retailers are confident they have enough inventory on hand to meet holiday demand,” Shay said.

While Thanksgiving weekend will be busy, 61 percent of those surveyed had already begun their holiday shopping, about the same as last year’s 59 percent but up from 51 percent a decade ago in 2011. The survey found 46 percent started earlier this year than they typically do. While the bulk of shopping may be yet to come, consumers had completed 28 percent of their holiday shopping by early November.

NRF has forecast that holiday sales in the United States during November and December will grow between 8.5 percent and 10.5 percent over 2020 to between $843.4 billion and $859 billion , setting records for both the growth rate and total amount spent. Consumers are expected to spend an average $997.73.

Thanksgiving weekend shopping

IN-PERSON SHOPPING EXPECTED TO RISE

Fully two-thirds of the holiday shoppers surveyed in early November by Prosper Insights & Analytics said that they plan to shop Thanksgiving weekend this year. That, according to the NRF, amounts to an estimated 158.3 million people, up from 156.6 million last year. But it still below the 165.3 million in pre-pandemic 2019.

The survey found 30.6 million plan to shop either in-store or online on Thanksgiving Day, 108 million on Black Friday, 58.1 million on Small Business Saturday, 31.2 million on Sunday and 62.8 million on Cyber Monday. The total of the daily numbers exceeds the overall figure because some consumers will shop multiple days.

Among those shopping on Thanksgiving Day, 65 percent said that they are likely to do so in stores, up from 50 percent last year, when worries about COVID-19 were still keeping many people at home. On Black Friday, 64 percent are likely to shop in stores, up from 51 percent last year.

For those shopping during the weekend, deals that are “too good to pass up” remain the top reason, cited by 58 percent, but tradition continued to come in second at 28 percent.

CONSUMER CONFIEDNCE  CLIMBING

With the holiday shopping season approaching, consumer confidence also appeared to be on the rise. The respected Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased in October, following declines in the previous three months.

The Consumer Confidence Index at te end of October stood at 113.8 (1985=100), up from 109.8 in September. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose to 147.4 from 144.3 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—improved to 91.3 from 86.7.

Thanksgiving Weekend Shopping Graph

Source: The Conference Board

“Consumer confidence improved in October, reversing a three-month downward trend as concerns about the spread of the Delta variant eased,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “While short-term inflation concerns rose to a 13-year high, the impact on confidence was muted.”

“The proportion of consumers planning to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances all increased in October—a sign that consumer spending will continue to support economic growth through the final months of 2021,” Franco stated. “Likewise, nearly half of respondents said they intend to take a vacation within the next six months—the highest level since February 2020, a reflection of the ongoing resurgence in consumers’ willingness to travel and spend on in-person services.”

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